🌨️5PM STORM UPDATE | NOTHING HAS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED ➡️Snow moving in and finally reaching the ground. ➡️ Travel should be suspended starting now as conditions will worsen NOW - 4am ➡️Sleet mixing progression will slow eastbound 5PM DISCUSSION: I’m not a fan of chasing every model run — especially during an active storm. This update is focused on the fundamentals and synoptic setup, and those remain solid. There are FOUR key players supporting the forecast as it stands (SEE IMAGE) 1️⃣ A nearl
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🌨️5PM STORM UPDATE | NOTHING HAS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE…
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🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! Air-parcel trajectory analysis will confirm the next polar plunge has true Arctic origins, tapping air straight from the North Pole with modified Siberian air mixed in. That’s the kind of source region that delivers exceptionally harsh wind chills, not just a standard cold shot. 🌬️ This air mass will sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Northeast, reinforcing the cold we already have in place. There’s simply no meanin
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🥶 SOURCE REGION FOR THE NEXT COLD BLAST = SIBERIA RUSSIA! …
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🌨️8PM STORM UPDATE | HEAVY SLEET INTO CENTRAL NJ... PHASE 2 OF THE STORM STARTS SOON INTO 3AM Warm air advection has pushed well into NW NJ and has slowed its eastward progress. Sleet is mixing in across Long Island, NYC, and the NJ Shore, while the core of the warm intrusion remains over central NJ. Because of this, the Winter Storm Warning for central NJ has been downgraded to an Advisory, with lower-end totals (a few inches) now expected south of NYC. The next phase of this storm is about to
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🌨️8PM STORM UPDATE | HEAVY SLEET INTO CENTRAL NJ... PHAS…
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6PM STORM UPDATE | SNOWFALL REVISIONS ❄️ ZONE 1: North & West of NYC Higher snow ratios, but a sharp cutoff in totals. The farther north you go, the less snow. Closer to the NJ/NY border, amounts trend closer to 3". ZONE 2: NYC & Northern NJ Around 3" expected, with a max potential of 4–5", especially along I-78 and into parts of the NYC metro if banding holds. ZONE 3: Jersey Shore & Long Island This remains the highest “boom” potential zone. I’m leaning toward ~6" for many, with a general 3–6"
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THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING AROUND..ARE WE DONE CHASING FANTASY BLOW TORCH WARMTH? I can’t tell you how much "heat" I took for pushing back on that sudden “SE Ridge blowtorch” idea for early December. We’ve gone from actually forecasting a pattern to waiting for one model run and declaring it gospel. When I tried to explain why the pattern still pointed colder, I got blasted for it... lol! And yet… here we are. The guidance has flipped back to cold and stormy. Not to say "told ya so" but.... I
THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING AROUND..ARE WE DON…
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10 AM Storm Update| some slight adjustments to the snow map to account for mesoscale banding and slight synoptic changes! | Mike Masco
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STORM UPDATE — 6PM | TIMING NOW IN FOCUS Storm updates on-air and online begin now, and I’ll keep posting throughout the night as things evolve. My full TV coverage kicks off at 4am on PIX11News. Timing the Storm: The HRRR graphic below highlights some moisture arriving very early Tuesday arrival. Much of the first returns may not reach the ground right away, but I do think we’ll see light snow long enough before sunrise for areas N&W of NYC to pick up a coating and start the morning white befor
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