When the polls close, how quickly the votes will be counted, and what FLIPR projects in the most important races of 2026.

Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been ...

Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...

Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

This is the weekly Still Counting post. It’s coming to you a day late because yesterday was one of those days. Not in a bad way, but in the way the last few days before the election typically are.

If you’re fully exploring the probabilistic landscape in an uncertain electoral environment, you’re inevitably going to end up with some posts that “didn’t age well.” For example, if Democrats have a ...

We’re chatting about all things midterms with our friends at The Argument, GD Politics, and Slow Boring. Think of this stream ...

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...