Iran warns of military retaliation and rejects ceasefire deadlines. No diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 1.5% YES.

Israeli forces uncovered an Iranian plot to sabotage an oil pipeline. Attack on Kharg Island oil terminal by April 30 at 11% ...

Iran remains undecided on US talks after a naval blockade and cargo ship seizure. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

Iran accused the US of attacking its commercial ship, raising tensions. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 ...

Iran strengthens ties with China and Russia amid US tensions. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 1.4% YES.

Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, causing the ceasefire-by-April-30 market to drop to 34.5% YES.

Iran's Baghaei dismisses US proposals as unserious, leading to a drop in market confidence; Trump agreeing to Iranian oil ...

Iran says it won’t engage in new talks with the US, pushing the ceasefire end by April 21 market to 22% YES, up from 6% ...

Iran is considering a ban on Israeli-linked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between ...

US Marines seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Arabian Sea. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30, 2026 at ...

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF gained $906 million in inflows last week. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April now at 36.5% YES.

Iran's ambassador warns US and Israel attacks were unsuccessful, making ceasefire talks unlikely. Ceasefire by April 30 at 34 ...