Israel struck 70 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, causing the odds for a ceasefire by April 15 to drop to 1.4% YES, while April 30 ...

Pakistan confirms imminent second round of US-Iran talks. Iran agrees to surrender uranium by April 30, 2026 at 29.2% YES.

The US-Israel war has closed the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days, with traffic normalization by May 31 at 25% YES.

Trump's ultimatum to the Fed chair adds uncertainty as Bitcoin steadies at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 at 100% ...

Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have narrowed to a few issues, but XRP reaching $2 by April 19 remains at 1.0% YES.

Russia's air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17, lowering ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by May 31, 2026 at 5.2% YES.

Global oil supply shock reveals disconnect between physical disruptions and market price reactions, reshaping economic ...

AI coding agents from Anthropic and Google were hacked, leading to a drop in confidence; Google’s top AI model by June 2026 ...

Circle minted $500 million in USDC on Solana, but the odds for Solana reaching $150 by April 13-19 remain unchanged at 0.1% ...

Iran pushes for sanctions relief amid reconstruction challenges. Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April at 36.5% YES.

Deutsche Bank raised China's 2026 GDP forecast to 4.9%, while ECB rate cut at April meeting remains at 0.1% YES.

Israel intensifies military operations in southern Lebanon. Military action in Greater Beirut by April 1, 2026, at 100% YES.