Crypto market cap falls 20.4% to $2.4T due to geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin reaching $82K by April 15 at 0.1% YES.

Iran halts petrochemical exports amid US naval blockade. Agreement to end uranium enrichment by April 30 at 39% YES.

Iran warns its launchers can sink US warships, affecting UK warship deployment odds. UK sending warships through the Strait ...

Israel struck 70 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, causing the odds for a ceasefire by April 15 to drop to 1.4% YES, while April 30 ...

UK prepares for potential food shortages due to the Iran conflict. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 2.3% YES ...

Iranian MP doubts US peace deal prospects, lowering confidence. Peace deal by April 22, 2026, now at 17.5% YES.

The US-Israel war has closed the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days, with traffic normalization by May 31 at 25% YES.

Trump's ultimatum to the Fed chair adds uncertainty as Bitcoin steadies at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 at 100% ...

Trump announced a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese leaders for Thursday. Diplomatic meeting by April 19 at 100% YES.

Israel annexed southern Lebanon, raising military action expectations. Suspension of military offensive by April 30 at 76% ...

Global oil supply shock reveals disconnect between physical disruptions and market price reactions, reshaping economic ...

Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have narrowed to a few issues, but XRP reaching $2 by April 19 remains at 1.0% YES.