When the polls close, how quickly the votes will be counted, and what FLIPR projects in the most important races of 2026.

Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been ...

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

Political commentators have been obsessed with potential polling error this cycle. And frankly, with the combination of recent high-profile misses and polls looking ...

I woke up very early today.1 Believe it or not, I get more sleep than you might assume — and the extra hour helped — but I’m no longer as much of a night owl as I pretend to be. One thing I’ve always ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

If you’re fully exploring the probabilistic landscape in an uncertain electoral environment, you’re inevitably going to end up with some posts that “didn’t age well.” For example, if Democrats have a ...

Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...

I’m going to be honest that I thought this was a fake headline when I first came across it on Twitter, sort of like I originally worried I might be hallucinating when I first heard about the Luka ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?