Combining historical economic and meteorological data makes it possible to estimate the economic impacts of El Niño episodes.

Sylvain Leduc, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department ...

Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export oil. Comparing the effects of past disruptions in Canada, a large net oil ...

Commercial banks have led the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. Evidence suggests that banks using AI more intensively tend to have higher returns on assets and higher shares ...

Huiyu Li, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of September 3, 2026. The U.S.

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising ...

Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in ...

Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, ...