The NBER Project on the Economics of Digitization provides new insights on the economic impact of the digitization of both commercial and personal activities, including the rise of digital media and ...

Nominal interest rates have real effects. Residential mortgages and other real world debt contracts require a sequence of constant nominal payments. Combined with payment-to-income constraints, these ...

To study this, we extend the DeGroot model by introducing an AI aggregator that trains on population beliefs and feeds synthesized signals back to agents. We define the learning gap as the deviation ...

We examine how the World War I agricultural commodity price boom affected human capital accumulation during the early decades of the high school movement in the United States. First, based on newly ...

Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of ...

We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about ...

This paper studies how global warming affects deforestation and agricultural land use. Using high-resolution satellite data on global temperature, deforestation, and land cover from 2001 to 2019, we ...

Prior research has pointed to differences in organizational capital as a reason for the persistent performance discrepancies among otherwise similar firms. In this paper, we develop and validate a new ...

Keane, "Amortized Inference for Correlated Discrete Choice Models via Equivariant Neural Networks," NBER Working Paper 35037 (2026), ...

We study Germany’s landmark quota requiring major public companies to include at least one woman on their top executive teams. The quota increased female representation among top executives by about ...

Aggregate real U.S. GDP fell by roughly 26 percent between 1929 and 1932, yet the severity of the Great Depression varied dramatically across states: CPI-deflated income per capita declined by 15 ...

While standard sudden-stop models explain well the sharpness of financial crises, it remains challenging to account for the persistent growth stagnation that typically follows credit-driven capital ...