Our final FLIPR update of the 2026 election cycle is in! When we launched the model back in August, Democrats were strong favorites to take the House but the Senate was close to a tossup. Today, a ...

When the polls close, how quickly the votes will be counted, and what FLIPR projects in the most important races of 2026.

One thing that hits a little different this year is that the main characters have really been the Democrats: Kamala Harris and, before her, Joe Biden. Source for this? Me, someone who’s been writing ...

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been ...

Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

In 16 years of running election forecasts, I’ve never seen such a close election. But that leaves a majority of cases where the election will probably be close, and it’s worth sorting through the ...

Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 ...