When the polls close, how quickly the votes will be counted, and what FLIPR projects in the most important races of 2026.

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been ...

Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests include Dave Weigel, Larry Sabato, Sean Trende, Clare Malone, Greg Bluestein, Lenny Bronner, ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

We’ll follow the returns, answer your questions, and make sense of the night as it unfolds. Hosting rotates between Nate Silver, Jerusalem Demsas, Lakshya Jain, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias. Guests ...

Democrats’ Senate odds are boosted by higher-quality candidates. But polls and other data mostly tell a consistent story.

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 ...