China “would start replacing the U.S. in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former Lithuanian foreign minister, recently posted on X. European Union members “in the East would be dependent on China’s protection and the racketeering would spread West.”

U.S. officials are considering whether they can strike a deal with China that would ramp up its purchases of American goods and investments in the United States.

As Donald Trump unleashes round two of his trade wars, an analysis of the way global commerce has rewired since his first presidency shows how Vietnam, Mexico and Canada are exposed this time around as a new era of American protectionism unfolds.